2013 NFL Week 1 "The Good, the Bad and the Funny"

We're eschewing the usual format of "the Good, Bad, and the Ugly" in order to shed light on some hilarious stuff that happens each week with the NFL and fantasy football in particular.

Good:

• Peyton Manning - About 50 points in most fantasy leagues and a new commercial where he claims that QB Sneak plays are "his thing". Awesome.

• Adrian Peterson - All Day busted out a huge run to start the game and added two more touchdowns to make the consensus #1 overall pick of each draft this year worth every penny.

• Anquan Boldin - Made me feel like a dumb-ass all day for not drafting him. Who the hell else is going to catch Kaepernick lasers? I forgot he was tight-end strong and wide-receiver fast. Green Bay sure did, too.

• Victor Cruz - The touchdown passes he caught exhibited toughness from a guy that still doesn't look that big. Victor Cruz takes a pounding and doesn't drop the football. If he was Megatron's size...he's probably be Megatron. Looks like he's still a threat for massive fantasy production. Last night, Cruz took a massive hit after a touchdown catch and hopped up into a salsa dance the next second. I love this guy.

• Brian Hartline - HOMER ALERT! Dolphins won yesterday, and Hartline matched his TD total from last year while going over 100 yards. This is excellent news for Dolphins fans and deep fantasy league players that skimped on wide receivers this year.

• TWO MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMES! OMG! WTF!

Bad:

• Clay Matthews - His non-ejection was ridiculous! A clearly out-of-bounds neck tackle on a QB and instigating a shoving match seemed like a pair of personal fouls to me, and I'm pretty sure that would warrant ejection in the new-look NFL. I like Matthews' intensity, but I feel like a less popular player would have gotten the boot.

• DirecTV website (via Madden 25 deal) - This bad boy went down for nearly the entire first half after looking so promising in my living room at about 12:55. If it was my account we were using, I'd have been pretty pissed, but instead I went with good ole streaming videos full of pop-up ads. Hopefully this is fixed by next week, or some people's heads might explode.

• Pittsburgh Steelers - Pittsburgh lost Pouncey and two other starters for the year, and barely managed a garbage-time touchdown after really struggling to move the ball against Tennessee. If not for the other three teams in their division losing in Week 1 as well, Steelers fans would have a lot to worry about. Hey, at least the Pirates are winners this year!

• Stevan Ridley - I drafted this dude really high in a few leagues and felt robbed watching Shane Vereen play mistake-free football en route to the numbers I expected from Ridley. Vereen broke a bone in his wrist, so Ridley gets another chance this week to make good in the Hood(ie), but if he drops another turd in Week 2, I'm selling. 

• David Wilson - Same thing with David Wilson. Two fumbles led to him bench-warming the majority of last night's game vs. the Cowboys, and after Andre Brown went down, I thought I had a true fantasy steal. Like Ridley, he's going to get another shot, but I assume that any fumbles will lead to benching and an overall destruction of Wilson's fantasy value.

• Jacoby Jones commercial - Didn't see it 500 times in a row this Sunday while watching the aforementioned DirecTV website? Just replay this video all day today and you'll get the Sunday Ticket experience.

Funny:

• Three Safeties - Three safeties happened within a few minutes of kickoff, and apparently this hasn't happened in one week since 1999. Last year, only 13 safeties occured all regular season.

• The Jets won! - Somehow, the seemingly worst team in football won a game with Geno Smith looking competent and Rex Ryan coaching 'em up at the very end. Let's not worry about the dumb-ass play by the Bucs at the end of the game...this was a totally unpredictable result.

• FARVA! - I'm pretty sure this is Farva of Super Troopers fame on this Windows 8 Tablet ad. See for yourself, and let me know if I am seeing things.

• Jaguars being so terrible - Chad Henne played. 'Nuff said.

Hit me on twitter @it_is_elliott or in the comments section.

Three 2013 NFL Fantasy Draft Observations

In a world of fantasy gurus and Top 10 lists, I’m looking to bring something to the fantasy discussion beyond simply quoting predictions and point averages. In the past week, I've completed five fantasy drafts ranging from cash-based live drafts to an experimental auction/FAAB format and have seen some trends that I find interesting.

1.       People freaking out over running backs

I haven’t seen a single draft list that didn't start with at least five or six RBs, and a few have had only one or two non-RBs listed in the top 15. I personally drafted a RB with each one of my initial picks (including paying $41 for Stevan Ridley in auction format) because some serious values at WR and TE were coming in the second and third rounds. You almost can’t draft any other position because of the available talent in the later rounds at FLEX/QB/WHATEVER and the dearth of talent at RB beyond the first 15 picks.

However, people seemed to keep leaving sure-fire studs on the board in lieu of drafting the next best RB. In my humble opinion, this was a total freak-out move. I’m sorry, but you can’t tell me that the historically volatile Mike Shanahan backfield forerunner (PUN INTENDED) Alfred Morris is going to be a better contributor ON AVERAGE than an elite WR available at the same position. Same thing goes with most second-tier RB1s.

 In one league, I was able to bracket picks at the end/beginning of a draft like this:

First Pick (#1 overall) – Adrian Peterson (Who’s more deserving than AD? Doug Martin? Beast Mode? Arian Foster? Get real.)

Second Pick (#16 overall) – A.J. Green, WR of awesome talent.

Third Pick (#17 overall) – Jimmy Graham, #1 TE by leaps and bounds and any other cliché distance .

A.J. Green is an absolute beast, and Jimmy Graham THIS YEAR at #17? Keep reading, please.

2.        Here’s why that was an absolute steal: TE is the position with the biggest drop-off from elite talent to mediocre talent.

I’ll just say it again, so those who bargain-shopped their TE slot can feel even worse about their draft:

TE is the position with the biggest drop-off from elite talent to mediocre talent.

Don’t believe me? I planned to go into this further in another article, so I’m just going to be quick here. I would say with confidence that Jimmy Graham is a much larger upgrade than the next available TE, and after that, the difference is even more severe. Here’s the skinny:

Jimmy Graham’s projected points in 2013 (according to Yahoo!):               179

Rob Gronkowski’s projected points in 2013:                                              158

The next best (T. Gonzalez, J. Witten, V. Davis):                                         140, 134, 119

Gronk is slated to score about the same amount of points per game as Graham, but probably won’t start in a full role and would be an obvious roster hole for at least the first week. After that, we’re looking at three players that will likely score at a much lower rate. Those players are getting you approximately 70% or less of the weekly production that one of the two elites would give you.

For comparison, here’s the top five RBs and their respective projections:

Peterson                                                                                                     266

Foster                                                                                                         254        

Spiller, Martin, Charles                                                                                239, 237, 229

Obviously, Peterson and Foster are safe picks (barring injury) and the next three are pretty close to each other in terms of projected points. The drop-off after the top five is pretty negligible, however. You have to go all the way down to the #15 RB (Frank Gore at this point in history) to get to a point of 70% production.

This doesn’t mean that Jimmy Graham in the first round of a 10-team league was a steal, either. Running backs that project up to 90% of the production of the OVERALL BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE are still draft-able late in the first or early in the second rounds. Taking Graham this early would take you out of the top running backs AND at least one #1 WR, and there’s no guarantee he wouldn’t have been available in the second or third round. In hindsight, I would have taken him third round every single time.

3.       Auctions are 156 times better than snake drafts.

I have started an auction league every year since reading a Bill Simmons mailbag entry about auction superiority. Quite simply, it kicks ass. Instead of having to watch the same troupe of first round picks, each fantasy manager gets to nominate a player and then bid an imaginary (or real) amount of money depending on a ton of criteria. The bidding wars and strategy involved with such wide-open auctioning are constant; the second-guessing and well-wishing after the draft are even worse than before. I’m not here to explain the rules, but I can tell you first hand that everyone goes crazy for an auction once they try it. It’s even more addictive than telling your normal friends about meaningless fantasy stats! I recommend doing this with your boring-ass work league as soon as possible.

I noticed a bunch of other things, but some of those are either covered by ESPN or other professional writers. I’m available for discussion about 14/6 of 24/7 in a week at @it_is_elliott on Twitter or in real life somewhere in Chapel Hill, NC. Any angry rants or questions are welcome in the comments section.                      

If Fantasy Football existed in 1984 - Dan Marino's Amazing Season (2011 archive)

2013 UPDATE: (I found this and thought I would post it just so we could see how far things have come in even a few years regarding the passing game in the NFL. this article is now so far from being relevant it's not funny. Many QBs have passed Marino's former record for yards in a season, and Aaron Rodgers' backup on the last game of 2011, Matt Flynn, stole his production in Week 17 en route to a lot of money for almost zero production.)

Definitely not about to scramble for a first down.

My dad has been a Dolphins fan for his entire life, and in 1984, Dan Marino had an unreal season en route to a Super Bowl matchup and two sickening passing records - 5084 passing yards in a season (still standing) and 48 touchdown passes in a season (held by Tom Brady in 2007 - 50!).

Since modern fantasy football rules didn't exist until the late 80's, chances are my dad and his buddies weren't coveting "ownership" of Dan Marino, and they definitely weren't watching his games live on phones at Thanksgiving (sorry, everyone who didn't sit near me at the table this year).

While researching for this topic, I looked at years in which Dan's records were challenged or broken. These included Drew Brees' in 2008, Tom Brady in 2007, Peyton Manning in 2004, and Aaron Rodgers in 2011 for comparison.
(Click each year for statistical analysis). 

I also left out analysis of fumbles lost, because data for this is not available for every game since 1984. I'd assume the difference would be marginal anyhow. In short, those have each been outstanding seasons from a Fantasy Football standpoint.

Consider Dan Marino's 1984 season stats for a second:

Marino 1984: 5084 passing yards - 48 passing TD - 17 INT - (-7 rush yards):

Since rotisserie football is not very popular, looking at individual game scores and adding them together would have given a more accurate reading of fantasy points. To adjust for this, I would add 2 points for 300 yard passing games and 5 points for 400 yard passing games with each game only getting one or the other (i.e., only five points for a 400 yard game as opposed to six). This seems fair, as many fantasy leagues offer bonuses much more robust than these. These adjusted game averages are listed in RED LETTERS.

Here's the breakdown in terms of fantasy points (scoring based on Yahoo! Fantasy standard league scoring)
(passing numbers rounded to increments of 25 yards, best values are shown in bold text)

Marino 1984: 5084 passing yards - 48 passing TD - 17 INT - (-7 rush yards):
        (5075/25) + (48*4) - 17 = 378 points/16 games = 23.6 fantasy points per game (25.1 adjusted)

Manning 2004*: 4557 passing yards - 49 passing TD - 10 INT - 38 rush yards :
        (4550/25) + (49*4) - 10 + 3 = 371 points/16 games = 23.2 fppg (24.1 adjusted)
(stats are for ALL 16 games; on January 1, 2005, Manning was 1-2 for six yards in a meaningless game @ Denver in Week 17. This is significant, because Week 17 is often a Fantasy League Super Bowl week. This alone would hurt Manning's overall value from 2004 considerably if taken in terms of aiding league championships)

Brady 2007*: 4806 passing yards - 50 passing TD - 8 INT - 98 rush yards - 2 rush TD :
        (4800/25) + (50*4) - 8 + 9 + (2*6) = 405 points/16 games = 25.3 fppg (25.8 adjusted)
(on October 28, 2007, Brady threw for 306 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, and rushed for 2 TD. 36 points in a standard league is sick)

Brees 2008*: 5069 passing yards - 34 passing TD - 17 INT - (-1 rush yard) :
        (5050/25) + (34*4) - 17 = 338 points/16 games = 21.1 fppg (22.3 adjusted)
(I watched a Saints WR drop the last pass of a game which would have pushed Brees past Marino for total passing yards in a season. I've never cheered so hard for a meaningless drop in my life)

Rodgers 2011*: 3475 passing yards - 33 passing TD - 4 INT - 175 rush yards - 2 rush TD :
        (3475/25) + (33*4) - 4 + 17 + (2*6) = 296 points/11 games = 26.9 fppg (27.9 adjusted)
(Rodgers' unreal numbers are likely to slip during the last five games. Even though his schedule is cupcake-laden, cold weather induces dropped passes, interceptions, and poor field conditions. Many of the YAC touchdowns this year from Rodgers might not make it as far in sub-zero conditions)

With adjusted values taken into play, Aaron Rodgers is having the sickest fantasy year in history.

Week 11 NFL Inactives

Key Inactives: 

Bengals WR A.J. Green (doubtful)
Browns S T.J. Ward
Chargers WR Malcom Floyd
Chiefs QB Matt Cassel
Cowboys WR Miles Austin
Eagles CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin
Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Lions RB Jahvid Best
Patriots LB Brandon Spikes
Raiders RB Darren McFadden
Ravens LB Ray Lewis


For the NFL list of Inactives (updated until gametime) click on the link below:

NFL.com Injury List (this is what I use)

Elliott's Week 11 NFL picks vs. Vegas

Let me begin by revisiting this past week's Thursday night game and my picks for that night. I was pretty on with Tebow (16 points to my prediction of 19), Von Miller (who went for 16+ in some formats!) and Shonn Greene (even I didn't think he'd go for less than 2). However, with Willis McGahee and Plaxico, I definitely overshot their value. Oh well...can't win 'em all. Here's my picks for this week:

lines taken from Bodog.com


Tennessee at Atlanta (-7)


Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons play considerably better at home, and Atlanta doesn't have the holes on defense that Carolina has. Look for a solid win by the Falcons in this one.

Buffalo at Miami (pick 'em)


Anyone that knows me, knows that I love the 'Phins. I also don't expect them to win every game. This, on the other hand, IS a game I expect them to win. Miami has given up less than 20 points a game, and with Stevie Johnson not at full strength, Miami's shortcomings in the secondary won't be a problem.

Cincinnati (+7) at Baltimore

No Ray Lewis today (according to Warren Sapp) means that this game should be closer than seven points. Flacco has had 300+ yards the past two games and Dalton has been pretty much awesome this week. Seeing that most games come down to a 3 or 6 point difference, I like Cincy to keep this close enough to cover.

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)


The fans in Cleveland are way too pissed off to let Blaine Gabbert and the rest of the Muppets get off to a good start, and I simply think the Browns are good enough to beat the lowly Jags.

Oakland (-1) at Minnesota

The only thing stopping a revitalized Carson Palmer is another something like this. Seriously though, I hope that doesn't happen.

Carolina (+7) at Detroit

Everyone in the Carolina area knows that Cam Newton averages 5.3 yards a rush, right? Or that besides last week, he has had a passer rating over 115 the previous two weeks? Never mind his knack for keeping the game close (and covering the spread), I'm taking the Panthers to win today. Yes, I drafted Cam.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14.5)


Huge line? Have you seen Green Bay play at home this year? Discount double check.

Dallas at Washington (-8)


When I was trying to score a not-awful defense to play in a league this week, I had the choice between Miami and Washington. Both teams have given up 20 points less than other terrible options, and the only reason they both have terrible records is turnover margin. I'm hoping the Romocoaster is on its' way down this week...because he was freaking perfect when I sat him last time.

Arizona at San Francisco (-10)


Coach Harbaugh might be smart enough to place a bet, win the game, and cover the spread, all without shaking anyone's hand too hard.

Seattle (+3) at St. Louis

Is this right? I thought St. Louis was the second-worst team in the NFL? Also, they are giving points to Seattle and BEAST MODE? This guy has been the quintessential sleeper this year.

Philadelphia at NY GIANTS (-4.5) no line from Bodog.com- taken from BetOnline


Giants' only offensive weakness is at RB, and Philly has a linebacking group that might not be able to start for LSU this year (seriously). With the "Best Manning Playing" on their side, and an injury to Philly's Jeremy Maclin, the Giants roll in this one. Expect some really pissed-off Philly fans.


Check back for results of my picks and views on the Monday night game tomorrow!

Hit me @2911music on twitter for last minute sit/start questions!

Week 11 Thursday Night Football Sit/Start List

This Thursday night, we have a hilarious matchup that looks like a sure win for the Jets if you ask the sports pundits. Personally, I have no feelings about the game beyond who to sit or start in fantasy, and since I have a few dogs in this fight, here's my take.

Denver Broncos (4-5)    <home team>

STARTERS

Willis McGahee (RB) - Being in the league this long after this play in the early 2000's seemingly ended his ability to walk is a testament to McGahee's resilience. A few reports of practice trouble is not enough for me to sit this guy, who seems to get stronger as the game goes on and tends to score pretty often. Don't forget that Knowshon Moreno is out for the season, and Tebow only threw a handful of passes last week. Jets defense is really only above-average in the secondary, so expect plenty of successful touches for Willis this week.
Projection: 105 all-purpose yards(rush TD), ~16 Fantasy Points

Tim Tebow (QB) - From ESPN: Since the start of 2010, Tebow has thrown the highest percentage of passes 15+ yards downfield in the NFL. 109.9 QB Rating in the 4th Quarter not enough? What if I told you that only 21% of owners are starting a player who ran for 118 yards two weeks ago, 41 and a score last week, and that this player ALSO throws passes? He throws some passes so poorly that even defenders are nowhere to be found, so don't expect a bunch of tight squeeze, Farve-esque INT's. Might not be Cam Newton, but only Tebow has a 100-yard rushing game by a QB this year. Also 3-1 as a starter. Get on the bandwagon already.
Projection: 125 passing yards (pass TD), 80 rushing yards (rush TD), 1 INT, ~19 Fantasy Points

Von Miller (LB) - Great rush LB with a 7th-most-sacked QB standing there on the other side. If he's available, go ahead and play with confidence.
Projection: 3.5 tackles (1 for loss), 2 sacks, 1 pass def., ~9 Fantasy Points

Eric Decker (WR) -  Can't really say that he is a dazzling talent, but Tebow seems to find him when he's REALLY open. Meaning, if anyone scores on a reception for the Broncos, it's going to be Decker. He gets return yards if your league has those, too.  In leagues with big play bonuses, he's a must start.
Projection: 2 Rec, 55 yards (rec TD), 40 return yards, ~11 Fantasy Points

BENCH

Eddie Royal (WR) - Was once a viable starter, until Tebow and the read option came to town. Also lost return job to Eric Decker. Don't waste a spot on your roster.
Projection: 3 Rec, 30 yards, ~3 Fantasy Points

Kyle Orton (QB) - 12% owned in Yahoo! Leagues, so this is for someone. If you think he's worth starting tonight "just in case", start tuning into my columns more often. You probably need some help.
Projection: 1 clipboard, 1 backwards hat, ~0 Fantasy Points

New York Jets (5-4)   <away team>

STARTERS

Plaxico Burress (WR) - Why do I like Burress in this game? Big target in the red zone, veteran skill set, and catches the ball away from his body. When he has a big game this year, it is a HUGE game. Start Plaxico and feel like a genius when he does it again this week.
Projection:  5 Rec, 45 yards (2 Rec TD), ~16 Fantasy Points

Kyle Wilson (DB) - Don't know about Wilson? Boise DB with a chip on his shoulder, Wilson is often opposite Revis Island and therefore picks up a LOT more opportunity for big plays on defense. Solid tackler, good hands, playing a college-style offense? Solid play at DB, I promise.
Projection: 3 Tackles, 2 Passes Def., ~6 Fantasy Points

BENCH

Shonn Greene (RB) - This is the only player talked about in the Jets' running game, and I just have to blow the whistle here...Greene has only outperformed his projection once in the past month, and it was a 12-point performance at that. He has scored over ten points only four times this year, and in the other games has put up such stunners as 3.4 points, 2.3 points, 7.8 points, 8.6 points, and 7.7 points. Don't get duped this week; the Broncos aren't a sieve like New England and San Diego.
Projection: 76 all-purpose yards, ~7 Fantasy Points

Darrelle Revis (DB) - Darrelle Revis, meet Eddie Royal. Eddie Royal, meet the only guy in the NFL that can't interfere with a pass or get caught holding. Since his opponents usually can't find a way to get open, there's little chance that the ball is coming his way. Revis has exceptional hands and world-class agility, but without any throws his direction, expect a quiet night from Revis. Most Revis owners spent a draft pick on him- don't make it worse. Pick up a safety.
Projection: 2 Tackles, Pass Def., ~4 Fantasy Points