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Sunday, December 25, 2011

If Fantasy Football existed in 1984 - Dan Marino's Amazing Season (2011 archive)

2013 UPDATE: (I found this and thought I would post it just so we could see how far things have come in even a few years regarding the passing game in the NFL. this article is now so far from being relevant it's not funny. Many QBs have passed Marino's former record for yards in a season, and Aaron Rodgers' backup on the last game of 2011, Matt Flynn, stole his production in Week 17 en route to a lot of money for almost zero production.)

Definitely not about to scramble for a first down.
My dad has been a Dolphins fan for his entire life, and in 1984, Dan Marino had an unreal season en route to a Super Bowl matchup and two sickening passing records - 5084 passing yards in a season (still standing) and 48 touchdown passes in a season (held by Tom Brady in 2007 - 50!).

Since modern fantasy football rules didn't exist until the late 80's, chances are my dad and his buddies weren't coveting "ownership" of Dan Marino, and they definitely weren't watching his games live on phones at Thanksgiving (sorry, everyone who didn't sit near me at the table this year).

While researching for this topic, I looked at years in which Dan's records were challenged or broken. These included Drew Brees' in 2008, Tom Brady in 2007, Peyton Manning in 2004, and Aaron Rodgers in 2011 for comparison.
(Click each year for statistical analysis). 

I also left out analysis of fumbles lost, because data for this is not available for every game since 1984. I'd assume the difference would be marginal anyhow. In short, those have each been outstanding seasons from a Fantasy Football standpoint.

Consider Dan Marino's 1984 season stats for a second:

Marino 1984: 5084 passing yards - 48 passing TD - 17 INT - (-7 rush yards):

Since rotisserie football is not very popular, looking at individual game scores and adding them together would have given a more accurate reading of fantasy points. To adjust for this, I would add 2 points for 300 yard passing games and 5 points for 400 yard passing games with each game only getting one or the other (i.e., only five points for a 400 yard game as opposed to six). This seems fair, as many fantasy leagues offer bonuses much more robust than these. These adjusted game averages are listed in RED LETTERS.

Here's the breakdown in terms of fantasy points (scoring based on Yahoo! Fantasy standard league scoring)
(passing numbers rounded to increments of 25 yards, best values are shown in bold text)

Marino 1984: 5084 passing yards - 48 passing TD - 17 INT - (-7 rush yards):
        (5075/25) + (48*4) - 17 = 378 points/16 games = 23.6 fantasy points per game (25.1 adjusted)

Manning 2004*: 4557 passing yards - 49 passing TD - 10 INT - 38 rush yards :
        (4550/25) + (49*4) - 10 + 3 = 371 points/16 games = 23.2 fppg (24.1 adjusted)
(stats are for ALL 16 games; on January 1, 2005, Manning was 1-2 for six yards in a meaningless game @ Denver in Week 17. This is significant, because Week 17 is often a Fantasy League Super Bowl week. This alone would hurt Manning's overall value from 2004 considerably if taken in terms of aiding league championships)

Brady 2007*: 4806 passing yards - 50 passing TD - 8 INT - 98 rush yards - 2 rush TD :
        (4800/25) + (50*4) - 8 + 9 + (2*6) = 405 points/16 games = 25.3 fppg (25.8 adjusted)
(on October 28, 2007, Brady threw for 306 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, and rushed for 2 TD. 36 points in a standard league is sick)

Brees 2008*: 5069 passing yards - 34 passing TD - 17 INT - (-1 rush yard) :
        (5050/25) + (34*4) - 17 = 338 points/16 games = 21.1 fppg (22.3 adjusted)
(I watched a Saints WR drop the last pass of a game which would have pushed Brees past Marino for total passing yards in a season. I've never cheered so hard for a meaningless drop in my life)

Rodgers 2011*: 3475 passing yards - 33 passing TD - 4 INT - 175 rush yards - 2 rush TD :
        (3475/25) + (33*4) - 4 + 17 + (2*6) = 296 points/11 games = 26.9 fppg (27.9 adjusted)
(Rodgers' unreal numbers are likely to slip during the last five games. Even though his schedule is cupcake-laden, cold weather induces dropped passes, interceptions, and poor field conditions. Many of the YAC touchdowns this year from Rodgers might not make it as far in sub-zero conditions)

With adjusted values taken into play, Aaron Rodgers is having the sickest fantasy year in history.

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