Let me begin by revisiting this past week's Thursday night game and my picks for that night. I was pretty on with Tebow (16 points to my prediction of 19), Von Miller (who went for 16+ in some formats!) and Shonn Greene (even I didn't think he'd go for less than 2). However, with Willis McGahee and Plaxico, I definitely overshot their value. Oh well...can't win 'em all. Here's my picks for this week:
lines taken from Bodog.com
Tennessee at Atlanta (-7)
Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons play considerably better at home, and Atlanta doesn't have the holes on defense that Carolina has. Look for a solid win by the Falcons in this one.
Buffalo at Miami (pick 'em)
Anyone that knows me, knows that I love the 'Phins. I also don't expect them to win every game. This, on the other hand, IS a game I expect them to win. Miami has given up less than 20 points a game, and with Stevie Johnson not at full strength, Miami's shortcomings in the secondary won't be a problem.
Cincinnati (+7) at Baltimore
No Ray Lewis today (according to Warren Sapp) means that this game should be closer than seven points. Flacco has had 300+ yards the past two games and Dalton has been pretty much awesome this week. Seeing that most games come down to a 3 or 6 point difference, I like Cincy to keep this close enough to cover.
Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)
The fans in Cleveland are way too pissed off to let Blaine Gabbert and the rest of the Muppets get off to a good start, and I simply think the Browns are good enough to beat the lowly Jags.
Oakland (-1) at Minnesota
The only thing stopping a revitalized Carson Palmer is another something like this. Seriously though, I hope that doesn't happen.
Carolina (+7) at Detroit
Everyone in the Carolina area knows that Cam Newton averages 5.3 yards a rush, right? Or that besides last week, he has had a passer rating over 115 the previous two weeks? Never mind his knack for keeping the game close (and covering the spread), I'm taking the Panthers to win today. Yes, I drafted Cam.
Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14.5)
Huge line? Have you seen Green Bay play at home this year? Discount double check.
Dallas at Washington (-8)
When I was trying to score a not-awful defense to play in a league this week, I had the choice between Miami and Washington. Both teams have given up 20 points less than other terrible options, and the only reason they both have terrible records is turnover margin. I'm hoping the Romocoaster is on its' way down this week...because he was freaking perfect when I sat him last time.
Arizona at San Francisco (-10)
Coach Harbaugh might be smart enough to place a bet, win the game, and cover the spread, all without shaking anyone's hand too hard.
Seattle (+3) at St. Louis
Is this right? I thought St. Louis was the second-worst team in the NFL? Also, they are giving points to Seattle and BEAST MODE? This guy has been the quintessential sleeper this year.
Philadelphia at NY GIANTS (-4.5) no line from Bodog.com- taken from BetOnline
Giants' only offensive weakness is at RB, and Philly has a linebacking group that might not be able to start for LSU this year (seriously). With the "Best Manning Playing" on their side, and an injury to Philly's Jeremy Maclin, the Giants roll in this one. Expect some really pissed-off Philly fans.
Check back for results of my picks and views on the Monday night game tomorrow!
Hit me @2911music on twitter for last minute sit/start questions!
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